Sizing Bets in No-Limit Holdem
The obvious difference between Limit and No-Limit Hold'em is the variability in the size of bets you can make based on the situation. While this ability changes the game, it is extremely important to choose your bet and/or raise size appropriately to accomplish the goals of No-Limit Holdem:
1) Force your drawing opponents into making a mistake by calling.
2) Maximize your profits from opponents when you have a made hand.
3) Minimize your losses in situations where you don't have the best of it.
These two goals are profound, yet contradictory. You want to bet enough so that your opponent will make a mistake (mathematically) by calling, but you want to keep him putting chips in the middle as an underdog.
First of all, you need to evaluate your opponents to accomplish this. The initial evaluation is that 3/4 of your opponents (at most small stakes games) have no concept of pot odds or anything else--all they know is that they have 4 hearts and another heart usually means they win the hand or that Norman Chad said on ESPN that 98o is a coin flip against 77.
Second of all, you need to use what you know from the above, and what you glean from your opponents play to make appropriate decisions on how to best approach your post-flop play.
Example: You're on the button in a $200 NL game with 8s8d. Two players limp, you raise to $8 and the BB and both limpers call your raise. There is $33 in the pot when the flop comes Jh-8s-3h. The limpers both check to you. What is your action??
Let's examine each potential action and analyze it's merit:
1) Check. This makes me scream almost as much as cold calling raises in LHE. Slowplaying can only get you in big trouble. You have a set. Right now, you're only behind JJ, but there are two potential draws out there to cause you trouble. There is a heart flush draw (Xh-Xh-Jh-3h) and a few potential straight draws--the open ended draw (Jh-Tx-9x-8s , for the player with T9), or some gutshots (Qx-Jh-Tx-8s, for the player with QT), and some player may actually even have both draws (if they have Th-9h, Qh-Th, Qh-9h). Checking here gives these drawing players free cards, and if I'm drawing here and you check, I'm just checking behind, ESPECIALLY considering your raise. Giving free cards to drawing players is the single worst error you can make in holdem. Don't get fancy here and go for a check-raise, because even if it works, and a player bets large enough and you raise enough to create a pressure point, now you may be playing a vulnerable hand for your entire stack against an opponent with potentially as many as 15 outs (which actually would make him a favorite to get there by the river)...Checking is very bad here.
2) Bet. Aggression is by far best here. But now, how much do you bet? It depends mostly on who or what draws you want to price out of the action (or what players you want to eliminate from the hand). First you need reads on players, so I'll give them here:
MP1 is a solid player by all accounts, VP$IP of 19%, PFR of 9%, AF-T of 2.1. He has $175 in his stack.
MP2 seems to call a lot, VP$IP 32%, PFR 4%, AF-T of 0.85. He has $140 in his stack.
BB seems to be quite loose, but aggressive, VP$IP 44%, PFR 19%, AF-T of 3.2. He has $260 in his stack.
You have $225 in front of you.
What does this tell you? MP1 may actually know what the hell he's doing. If you make a smart bet, and don't give him odds, he's probably smart enough to dump his hand. MP2 will be tougher to get to leave. The BB might re-raise you if you fire out, which is exactly the result you'd like. He'd fire with a draw, top pair, or just because he liked the way the sunlight hit his monitor.
Back to the topic at hand. How much should you bet? Let's put each player on a range of hands. MP1, being very solid and tight, likely has a hand like a small pair, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ, QJ, or a suited connector (because he limped, which means he likes his hand a little bit, and called a raise, which means that he likes the odds he's getting to hit something). Does he have a hand like T9? Unlikely--he wouldn't think that hand is worth a limp-call. QT? Possibly. Could they be suited? Very possible. So, I have him limited to big Aces (AQ or AJ, likely offsuit), suited Broadway (two face cards), or MAYBE lower suited connectors. What could he have? He could have TPTK (you hope--AJ makes him top pair top kicker, the dream hand for an opponent to have vs. a set), a gutshot (with QT), or a flush draw (with two hearts). AJ has him drawing just about dead (since he needs either running Js, or running As. The gutshot or the flush draw are your worries here. A gutshot draw gives him 4 outs twice, a 16% chance of hitting, and 10.75-to-1 odds against hitting his hand. The flush draw gives him 8 outs (because the 8h gives you the stone cold nuts) twice, a 32% chance of hitting, and 4.875-to-1 odds against hitting his hand.
If you were playing him heads-up, this would be easy. You would pick the worst case scenario and bet so that he would be incorrect in drawing to his hand. Here the worst case is a flush draw (short of JJ, of course), and you need to give him worse that 4.875-to-1 odds on his money to force him into a mistake by calling.
He needs to get worse than 4.75-to-1 odds on his money to call. We can accomplish this by betting $9. This makes the pot $42, and makes him call $9 to win $42, which is only 4.67-to-1 on his 4.875-to-1 shot. This is an incorrect call for him, so if he folds, (we're talking heads-up here) you win the pot, and if he calls, you win because he's made a serious mistake in calling without odds to make the call.
Of course, we're NOT heads up, so it's a different situation. You have two other players to get through to get to this solid player, who is likely smart enough to fold to that bet anyway. Let's look at the BB, the aggressive player. He could have any two cards, but for him to call this raise, considering his general level of aggression, he probably has suited cards. Could he have Th-9h (the biggest draw here)? Yes. Plan for that. He has 14 outs here (8 hearts--except the 8h) to make his straight or flush, and he's actually a 56% chance to get there. He has 2.36-to-1 odds to make his hand, so you have to force him into a mistake with your bet size. The appropriate bet here (apologies for the algebra) is one that makes 2.36 x > 33 + x. To solve the equation for x, you come up with x > 24.26. If you bet $24.50 (3/4 pot), he does not have odds to draw to his monster draw and would be making a mistake by calling.
Since this player is the first you have to deal with, we'll pick up the action here. You bet $25, a nice round number, a little more than 3/4 pot. He can either fold (you win the encounter), call (a CRITICAL mistake, and out of character for such an aggressive player), or raise, because he either made a hand (two pair, other set), has over-valued his draw (flush, straight, or both), or thinks you're bluffing. A raise here by the BB will make this hand heads up, undoubtedly, unless MP2 is an idiot, or MP1 has a set.
We'll deal with the raise first. Since he's too aggressive to limp-call JJ, you have to assume you're miles ahead of a drawing opponent. Any raise he makes here to your $25 bet has to be at least $50, so your next move would be clear--all-in. It would again force him into another huge mistake. He would be calling $192 to win the $108 in the pot, $50 of which is his, and he would be calling it as a massive underdog. Again, unless he's not only an idiot, but a lucky idiot, you win the hand right here.
He won't just call that bet, so that's eliminated. He folds. MP1 sees your $25 bet and realizes he's behind. He folds as well, leaving you heads-up with the MP2 calling station. When a player is non-aggressive (passive, with an AF-T under 1.0), he will call more frequently, and usually call larger bets than their more aggressive brethren. If he does call this bet, you've forced him into another error. Let's say he calls, because that's what calling stations do.
Now there is $83 in the pot, he has $107 in front of him, and you have $192 in front of you. The turn card is another heart, and not the 8h. What do you do? If he has the flush, you still have 9 outs. How much of a bet can you profitably call after a check? You have 4.11-to-1 odds to make a full house on the river, which will give you the win, and most likely your opponent's stack. This is where implied odds come into play as well, but on face value, your opponent must bet at least $27.67 to make your call unprofitable (1/3 pot) on it's face value, but you also must consider the fact that if you call this bet, he will be pot committed and get the balance of his stack in on the river. So the pot's effective size here isn't $83, it's actually $190 due to the implied odds you're getting for him to get the rest of his stack in the middle. His bet to make you unprofitably call still has to be 1/3 the size of the pot based on the pot odds, so his minimum bet to push you out has to be at least $63, which would completely pot-commit him.
If he bets $63 or less, you can either call the bet or raise him all-in. If he bets more than $63, you can assume he made the flush and properly priced you out--fold the hand and walk away.
Now let's say that the turn card doesn't complete any draw--it's a blank. It's you and MP2 heads up, and the pot here is $83. What do you do? He already called a ridiculous bet on the flop, so make him call another one on the turn. Assume he has the 14-out draw and bet accordingly: 3/4 pot (as detailed above). Bet out $60. See if he calls. If he calls, he makes another mistake by calling, and yet another by pot-committing himself to a draw on the river. Another victory for you.
Finally, let's say you hit gravy, and the turn card gives you either a full house by pairing the board or quads. What now? You have the nuts (assuming again, he doesn't have quads to your full house or JJ for a bigger boat). You need now to bet enough to KEEP HIM IN THE HAND. Maximize profit. He has $107 in front of him, so your absolute betting cap is about half his stack. Bet out more than the $25 you bet on the flop, but less than $50 to keep him from panicking over the size of his remaining stack (which won't be remaining much longer). Let him hang himself by calling. I'd toss out just enough for a flush draw (9 outs) to properly call, about $30. If the turn card was the 8h, do the same thing. LET him call you and feel good about it, then pounce on the river for the rest of his stack.
No Limit Holdem is a complex game, and when you consider than truly good players do what was detailed above in their heads within about 15 seconds, you realize exactly how complex and challenging a game it is.
1) Force your drawing opponents into making a mistake by calling.
2) Maximize your profits from opponents when you have a made hand.
3) Minimize your losses in situations where you don't have the best of it.
These two goals are profound, yet contradictory. You want to bet enough so that your opponent will make a mistake (mathematically) by calling, but you want to keep him putting chips in the middle as an underdog.
First of all, you need to evaluate your opponents to accomplish this. The initial evaluation is that 3/4 of your opponents (at most small stakes games) have no concept of pot odds or anything else--all they know is that they have 4 hearts and another heart usually means they win the hand or that Norman Chad said on ESPN that 98o is a coin flip against 77.
Second of all, you need to use what you know from the above, and what you glean from your opponents play to make appropriate decisions on how to best approach your post-flop play.
Example: You're on the button in a $200 NL game with 8s8d. Two players limp, you raise to $8 and the BB and both limpers call your raise. There is $33 in the pot when the flop comes Jh-8s-3h. The limpers both check to you. What is your action??
Let's examine each potential action and analyze it's merit:
1) Check. This makes me scream almost as much as cold calling raises in LHE. Slowplaying can only get you in big trouble. You have a set. Right now, you're only behind JJ, but there are two potential draws out there to cause you trouble. There is a heart flush draw (Xh-Xh-Jh-3h) and a few potential straight draws--the open ended draw (Jh-Tx-9x-8s , for the player with T9), or some gutshots (Qx-Jh-Tx-8s, for the player with QT), and some player may actually even have both draws (if they have Th-9h, Qh-Th, Qh-9h). Checking here gives these drawing players free cards, and if I'm drawing here and you check, I'm just checking behind, ESPECIALLY considering your raise. Giving free cards to drawing players is the single worst error you can make in holdem. Don't get fancy here and go for a check-raise, because even if it works, and a player bets large enough and you raise enough to create a pressure point, now you may be playing a vulnerable hand for your entire stack against an opponent with potentially as many as 15 outs (which actually would make him a favorite to get there by the river)...Checking is very bad here.
2) Bet. Aggression is by far best here. But now, how much do you bet? It depends mostly on who or what draws you want to price out of the action (or what players you want to eliminate from the hand). First you need reads on players, so I'll give them here:
MP1 is a solid player by all accounts, VP$IP of 19%, PFR of 9%, AF-T of 2.1. He has $175 in his stack.
MP2 seems to call a lot, VP$IP 32%, PFR 4%, AF-T of 0.85. He has $140 in his stack.
BB seems to be quite loose, but aggressive, VP$IP 44%, PFR 19%, AF-T of 3.2. He has $260 in his stack.
You have $225 in front of you.
What does this tell you? MP1 may actually know what the hell he's doing. If you make a smart bet, and don't give him odds, he's probably smart enough to dump his hand. MP2 will be tougher to get to leave. The BB might re-raise you if you fire out, which is exactly the result you'd like. He'd fire with a draw, top pair, or just because he liked the way the sunlight hit his monitor.
Back to the topic at hand. How much should you bet? Let's put each player on a range of hands. MP1, being very solid and tight, likely has a hand like a small pair, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ, QJ, or a suited connector (because he limped, which means he likes his hand a little bit, and called a raise, which means that he likes the odds he's getting to hit something). Does he have a hand like T9? Unlikely--he wouldn't think that hand is worth a limp-call. QT? Possibly. Could they be suited? Very possible. So, I have him limited to big Aces (AQ or AJ, likely offsuit), suited Broadway (two face cards), or MAYBE lower suited connectors. What could he have? He could have TPTK (you hope--AJ makes him top pair top kicker, the dream hand for an opponent to have vs. a set), a gutshot (with QT), or a flush draw (with two hearts). AJ has him drawing just about dead (since he needs either running Js, or running As. The gutshot or the flush draw are your worries here. A gutshot draw gives him 4 outs twice, a 16% chance of hitting, and 10.75-to-1 odds against hitting his hand. The flush draw gives him 8 outs (because the 8h gives you the stone cold nuts) twice, a 32% chance of hitting, and 4.875-to-1 odds against hitting his hand.
If you were playing him heads-up, this would be easy. You would pick the worst case scenario and bet so that he would be incorrect in drawing to his hand. Here the worst case is a flush draw (short of JJ, of course), and you need to give him worse that 4.875-to-1 odds on his money to force him into a mistake by calling.
He needs to get worse than 4.75-to-1 odds on his money to call. We can accomplish this by betting $9. This makes the pot $42, and makes him call $9 to win $42, which is only 4.67-to-1 on his 4.875-to-1 shot. This is an incorrect call for him, so if he folds, (we're talking heads-up here) you win the pot, and if he calls, you win because he's made a serious mistake in calling without odds to make the call.
Of course, we're NOT heads up, so it's a different situation. You have two other players to get through to get to this solid player, who is likely smart enough to fold to that bet anyway. Let's look at the BB, the aggressive player. He could have any two cards, but for him to call this raise, considering his general level of aggression, he probably has suited cards. Could he have Th-9h (the biggest draw here)? Yes. Plan for that. He has 14 outs here (8 hearts--except the 8h) to make his straight or flush, and he's actually a 56% chance to get there. He has 2.36-to-1 odds to make his hand, so you have to force him into a mistake with your bet size. The appropriate bet here (apologies for the algebra) is one that makes 2.36 x > 33 + x. To solve the equation for x, you come up with x > 24.26. If you bet $24.50 (3/4 pot), he does not have odds to draw to his monster draw and would be making a mistake by calling.
Since this player is the first you have to deal with, we'll pick up the action here. You bet $25, a nice round number, a little more than 3/4 pot. He can either fold (you win the encounter), call (a CRITICAL mistake, and out of character for such an aggressive player), or raise, because he either made a hand (two pair, other set), has over-valued his draw (flush, straight, or both), or thinks you're bluffing. A raise here by the BB will make this hand heads up, undoubtedly, unless MP2 is an idiot, or MP1 has a set.
We'll deal with the raise first. Since he's too aggressive to limp-call JJ, you have to assume you're miles ahead of a drawing opponent. Any raise he makes here to your $25 bet has to be at least $50, so your next move would be clear--all-in. It would again force him into another huge mistake. He would be calling $192 to win the $108 in the pot, $50 of which is his, and he would be calling it as a massive underdog. Again, unless he's not only an idiot, but a lucky idiot, you win the hand right here.
He won't just call that bet, so that's eliminated. He folds. MP1 sees your $25 bet and realizes he's behind. He folds as well, leaving you heads-up with the MP2 calling station. When a player is non-aggressive (passive, with an AF-T under 1.0), he will call more frequently, and usually call larger bets than their more aggressive brethren. If he does call this bet, you've forced him into another error. Let's say he calls, because that's what calling stations do.
Now there is $83 in the pot, he has $107 in front of him, and you have $192 in front of you. The turn card is another heart, and not the 8h. What do you do? If he has the flush, you still have 9 outs. How much of a bet can you profitably call after a check? You have 4.11-to-1 odds to make a full house on the river, which will give you the win, and most likely your opponent's stack. This is where implied odds come into play as well, but on face value, your opponent must bet at least $27.67 to make your call unprofitable (1/3 pot) on it's face value, but you also must consider the fact that if you call this bet, he will be pot committed and get the balance of his stack in on the river. So the pot's effective size here isn't $83, it's actually $190 due to the implied odds you're getting for him to get the rest of his stack in the middle. His bet to make you unprofitably call still has to be 1/3 the size of the pot based on the pot odds, so his minimum bet to push you out has to be at least $63, which would completely pot-commit him.
If he bets $63 or less, you can either call the bet or raise him all-in. If he bets more than $63, you can assume he made the flush and properly priced you out--fold the hand and walk away.
Now let's say that the turn card doesn't complete any draw--it's a blank. It's you and MP2 heads up, and the pot here is $83. What do you do? He already called a ridiculous bet on the flop, so make him call another one on the turn. Assume he has the 14-out draw and bet accordingly: 3/4 pot (as detailed above). Bet out $60. See if he calls. If he calls, he makes another mistake by calling, and yet another by pot-committing himself to a draw on the river. Another victory for you.
Finally, let's say you hit gravy, and the turn card gives you either a full house by pairing the board or quads. What now? You have the nuts (assuming again, he doesn't have quads to your full house or JJ for a bigger boat). You need now to bet enough to KEEP HIM IN THE HAND. Maximize profit. He has $107 in front of him, so your absolute betting cap is about half his stack. Bet out more than the $25 you bet on the flop, but less than $50 to keep him from panicking over the size of his remaining stack (which won't be remaining much longer). Let him hang himself by calling. I'd toss out just enough for a flush draw (9 outs) to properly call, about $30. If the turn card was the 8h, do the same thing. LET him call you and feel good about it, then pounce on the river for the rest of his stack.
No Limit Holdem is a complex game, and when you consider than truly good players do what was detailed above in their heads within about 15 seconds, you realize exactly how complex and challenging a game it is.
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