Rubber Matches and Series Finales

By Sean Benhabib
8-31-06

One way to win money betting on baseball and increase the odds of winning is to wait for the rubber matches or series finale. Several times a year, more times than be counted rationally, a good team will be on the road against or hosting a much more inferior baseball club. It happened a couple of weeks ago when the White Sox hosted the Royals, and at not quite such a variegated level when the Mets were on the road in Philadelphia to take on the Phillies. During each of these two series, the inferior squads gave the favorites a highly contested battle. If one had bet on the favorites in all eight games, 4 between the Royals and White Sox and 4 between the Phillies and Mets, one would have lost quite a bit of money going 3 – 5.

However, if one waited patiently to see how the series' would unfold, somebody could have made a lot of money on the deciding game fours. At no point should taking the Royals, even at a seriously reasonable price, ever be considered in Chicago to take on the defending world champs. Royal pitching isn't that great and Sox hitters can swing the bat. They, the Royals, did however take the first 2 of 3 in the 4 game series. Could the Royals actually take 3 of 4 in Chicago against the Sox? I'd be hard pressed to find anybody who knows anything about baseball to think that they could.

In game 4 of that series, the White Sox won narrowly 5 – 4, and at nearly -200 it was no bargain. However, the chances of the Royals winning that game and taking 3 of 4 in Chicago were slim to none. It would have been a great time to put some good money on the Sox.

During this same week, the first place Mets were in Philadelphia to take on the Phillies, also for 4 games. In the standings the Mets had a double digit lead on the Phils, but the Phils had been relatively hot. They had just completed a stretch that saw them go 11 – 5 before losing 2 out of 3 at home to the Reds. Their hot streak continued when they took the first 3 games versus New York.

To say that the New York Mets would lose 4 straight in Philadelphia this year would be a bit of a stretch. In fact, the Mets did not lose 4 straight and won the 4th game in convincing fashion 7 – 2. The point is that betting on the Mets in this fourth game at nearly even money would have been a great bet, just like betting on the White Sox in game 4 of their series versus the Royals after losing 2 of the first 3.

What this all means is that good teams often stumble. They don't get up for games against teams that they are supposed to beat or in the case of Mets/ Phillies, the superior team could be on the road against a hot division rival. That being said though however, good teams are rarely going to lose 4 straight in a series or even 3 out of 4, 2 out of 3, at home to a substandard team. Lots of money can be lost betting on these games because the White Sox should take 3 out of 4 from the Royals and the Mets should earn at least a 2 game split against the Phillies in Philadelphia. When things don't pan out the way they should, it is important to hang in there for the rubber match or the final game of a series. Good teams are resilient and they will take that final game after dropping the first 2, they will take game 4 after losing 2 of the first 3. That's what makes them good teams.

Similar happenings took place this past weekend in Chicago again, and out in Anaheim where the Angels were hosting the Yankees. The Angels took the first 2 at home versus the Bronx Bombers and the White Sox lost the first 2 at home to a red hot Twins squad. Could the Yankees lose 3 straight in Anaheim? Could the White Sox get swept at home by the Twinkies? Anything is possible, but the odds are that neither one of those things are going to happen, and at +105, the Yankees were a great bet as they hung on to beat the Angels 11 – 8 after jumping out to a 10 – 0 lead. Sure enough the White Sox won as well, spanking the Twins 6 – 1. In these particular 2 cases, good teams, the Yankees and White Sox had lost the first 2 games of a 3 game set. However, these same 2 teams had only been swept in a 3 game series once all year. That means that the odds of it happening again were practically nil, making them great bets at even money and $0.66 on the dollar, a terrific parlay.

The point of all this of course is to hang in there on a good team when they stumble, wait for the rubber matches, or series finales, and bet on good teams when they are down because more often then not they will rebound. Sometimes, freak occurrences unfold where teams like the Red Sox lose 5 straight at home to the Yanks, but they're rare. Good teams do not get swept. They win series' from inferior clubs. A lot of money can be lost banking on a front runner early in the series. Sometimes so much that none is left for the finale when the real money should be wagered. Look out, be patient, wait for the odds to really be in your favor.

Ed Note:  Make sure you visit Bet365 when it's time to place your money on the rubber match.