Don't Overlook the Obvious

By Ted Kane
9-05-06

As we head for the first week of NFL football, we can count once again on being bamboozled by commentators with countless statistics and trivia regarding individual teams and articular match-ups. Fair enough; that sort of thing is fun as far as it goes, and some pieces of information may actually be applicable to certain situations. Any advantage helps, and if you hear something that might give you an edge more's the better.

That said, be wary of analyzing these things to death in search of the winning angle. But that angle might be nothing more than figuring out which team is better than the other. Sure, a team's historical record on Monday Night Football may be a piece in the puzzle that is a contest between two well-matched football teams, but I'd be inclined to throw
that datum out when the match seems otherwise one-sided. When a 5-1 club is playing a 1-5, there's really no need to all that cute about it.

This applies not only to football games, but all sporting events. I experienced an epiphany this weekend sitting in the stands at Del Mar waiting for the fourth race to begin. On the face of it, there seemed to be a lot to consider; the race was running on the grass for a mile. Naturally, one tends to consider horses that have been proven on the
turf and at a distance. The fans made one horse the prohibitive 7/5 favorite, but I wasn't sold; the horse did have a route specialist aboard and had English breeding in her favor, but she was hardly a monster--she'd finished third in her last out and shown only so-so speed. Another horse in the field was going at 12-1. This horse had never turfed, but she had won a couple races in a row and had speed figures that were consist ntly better than the rest of the field. Though there was a risk she wouldn't take to the lawn, if she showed anything like her dirt form there was no question she would prove much
the best. Well, she did, she was, and I still have some money in my pocket today thanks to her and her connections. I bet on the fastest horse entered in a race to win it, and she did; how simple was that?

I'm going to try and keep that in mind going into the first big weekend of NFL football. There is a time and a place for statistical arcana, but if you have a good feel for a particular game already, there's no real need to dig that deeply into it. You may just end up confusing yourself and think your way out of an easy score.

Ed Note:  Pick all the obvious winners at BodogSportsbook.