The Sure Thing, and What to do When You Find It

By Ted Kane
8-17-06

Gamblers, especially horseplayers, are always looking for the sure thing, a can't lose bet. Of course, there is no such animal; one need only look at the horrific accident suffered by Barbaro to be reminded of the inherent perils of horse racing. That said, every once in a while you will find a horse that is so obviously superior to the rest
of the field that it is impossible to imagine this horse losing without some bout of catastrophic bad luck. But it's not enough to merely identify a great horse, a successful handicapper must have a strategy to capitalize on the situation when it arrives.

Most likely, it will be only mildly profitable to simply bet on such a horse to win. Let's face it; you are likely not the world's preeminent judge of horseflesh, so it's most probable that other bettors will have latched on to this horse as well and you therefore won't get a very good price betting on a single result of win, place or show. Assuming
that the odds are even money or worse, you might want to skip that line of betting altogether and look at the exotics. Can you identify the horse or horses likely to place? Take the one or ones that seem most likely. Can you identify some probably winners in the adjacent races? Bet the daily double or the pick three. The payoff on these wagers is
often quite considerable. If you are 99.9% positive on the winner in one race, you can take it with the three or four best horses in the next race or two and still make a tasty profit. And if you are feeling really ambitious, you can use this race to build a pick four or pick six around.

There is a lot of money in the trifecta and superfecta pools, but the often spectacular payouts from these bets come from their very risky nature. It may seem paradoxical, but it is often harder to figure out which horse will finish third or fourth than it is to figure out which will come in first or second. Sometimes the top three horses will battle it out to the wire, but just as often one of those horses will tire down the stretch and a seemingly lesser horse will sneak in to capture the bottom part of the wager. It can be a disappointing experience to lose a potentially lucrative trifecta at the wire by a horse you didn't cover, so my advice to anyone betting at the track, a casino or online is to take as many horse as necessary at the bottom of trifecta and superfecta wagers. If you have the first two horses in order and feel good about them, take the rest of the field in the third slot, especially if the field is a smallish one. Sure, you are purchasing some dead bets, but the trifecta payout is so big that you won't mind later when you are cashing your tickets.

Ed Note:  The best sports book to place you thoroughbred wagers is, hands down, VIPSports.