Mixed Martial Arts

By Robert Rousseau
8-20-06

Mixed martial arts (MMA) is one of the fastest growing sports in America. Its surge in popularity has come about for several reasons, but perhaps most influential has been Spike TV’s The Ultimate Fighter Reality Television Show (TUF). Millions of fans watched as Forrest Griffin and Diego Sanchez emerged as the TUF 1 winners, fighting their way through a host of elimination matches on their way to six figure Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) contracts (TUF is similar to boxing’s, The Contender). Of course, when a lot of people are watching a sport, that also means that a lot of people are betting on it.

So what does one have to consider when wagering on mixed martial arts? Simply put, it’s time to think/ learn about the following factors:

Learn how the odds work.– MMA betting works just like boxing. As an example, here are the odds for the main event at UFC 62.

Chuck Liddell -320
Renato Sobral +250

It really isn’t all that complex. If a negative sign precedes the number then the person is the favorite, and if a positive sign precedes the number, then you’re looking at the underdog. Using the above example, you have to wager $100 on Renato Sobral to take home $250 (if he wins). However, in order to win $100 betting on Chuck Liddell, you need to wager $320.

In other words, if you find the underdog in the rough, you stand to make more money.

Know the different types of bets.– This part is simple. You can bet on everything from the round a fight will end to the way it will end. Don’t bother with any of that unless you are very knowledgeable and absolutely positive. The best odds come with wagering straight up on the fight, period.

Know the fighters and the sport.– You need to watch a lot of mixed martial arts in order to truly understand it (and wager on it). The good thing– there are Pride and UFC matches on television every month these days (Pride is Japan’s version of the UFC). Though most information may have to be gained through Pay Per View telecasts, reruns of Pride matches are now available on Fox Sports Net quite often (and they’re soon to start next day broadcasts). Further, the UFC airs regular Ultimate Fight Night events on Spike TV (not to mention their TUF Reality Show). Watching sports you bet on is always important, but with MMA it may be even more necessary because it’s a highly complicated sport. To wager on it you must have at least a rudimentary understanding of how all the fighting disciplines come together (Brazilian Jiu- Jitsu, Karate, Kickboxing, American Wrestling, Judo, etc.).

Beyond this, there are some good online references that will allow you to keep up with MMA news. Punch any fighter’s name into Sherdog.com and out will pop nearly all the information one would need to know about him (record, fighting team, submission victories, (T)KO victories, losses/ how they came about, and opponents). Further, MMAFighting.com and MMAWeekly.com are great resources as well.

Know what the prospective fighters want to do (their strengths).– Consider what each fighter likes to do. For example, anyone who watches MMA knows that UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Chuck “The Iceman” Liddell loves to stand and trade like a kickboxer. Same with Pride’s Wanderlei Silva (their Middleweight Champion). However, UFC Welterweight Champion, Matt Hughes, is a much different fighter than the aforementioned. His forte is clearly the ground game (in other words, he likes to take his opponent down and employ jiu- jitsu, wrestling, and punches/ elbows on the mat). In order to bet on an MMA bout successfully, one needs to consider these fighter preferences (which go along with their strengths as fighters, of course).

Know what the prospective fighters do not want to do (their weaknesses).– Now consider what each fighter does not want to do. For example, Chuck Liddell does not want to fight on the ground. Matt Hughes would likely not want to spend the majority of a fight on his feet. Without this knowledge, gambling on MMA will be difficult at best.

Ask yourself if the prospective fighter will be able to employ their preferred style in the fight.– It’s really that simple. For example, a fan recently asked me if the Pride Lightweight Champion, Takanori Gomi, could beat the UFC Welterweight Champion, Matt Hughes. Knowing what I know about MMA– that those who prefer the stand up game must be on their feet for a significant amount of time to win– I said “no.” Gomi would want to stand, and Hughes would want to bring the fight to the ground. Hughes is the best takedown guy in the world in his division, is inhumanly strong, and is, to boot, bigger than Gomi (welterweight versus lightweight). Gomi’s takedown defense would wither under his assault (in my opinion). Further, Hughes has never been knocked out before (as Sherdog.com will tell you).

Ask yourself, if the prospective fighter can withstand being in the position they don’t want to be for any length of time against their opponent.– Georges St. Pierre is about to fight Matt Hughes for the UFC Welterweight Crown. St. Pierre is a better striker than Hughes, and may be able to stand with him longer than other opponents (he’s got very good takedown defense). However, Hughes has shown the ability to stand with other fighters for significant lengths of time before (seemingly biding his time before the takedown). So, in this case it would seem that Hughes may be able to withstand being in a position that he doesn’t want to be in (standing up), before finally exerting his will (and bringing the fight to the mat). However, Gomi, as was referenced earlier, would likely not be able to withstand Hughes’ dominance on the ground. This is important information.

In sum.– Bet on the person most able to do what they want against the other in the end by using all of the above information. In other words, where is the fight likely to end up, and who is better in that position? Further, consider if either fighter can compete successfully in the position they do not want to be in. If they can, then that’s important information to consider.

And if you can’t answer the questions posed above, then don’t bet. You need more information.

What if it’s too tough to call?– If you watch MMA, then you likely watched the Randy Couture/ Chuck Liddell trilogy with bated breath. This was a tough one to call from the first match to the last (Liddell ended up winning the rubber match). However, their rivalry serves as a good illustration for would be gamblers.

Liddell wanted to stand; Couture wanted the fight on the ground. Both were so good at what they did that guessing the winner was difficult, even for the most knowledgeable fight enthusiasts. In such circumstances, go with the underdog (and make more money if they win). If one had done this with the trilogy, they would’ve went 2-1 and won big money with each victory.

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