NFL Futures

By Justin Williams
8-25-06

The value of handicapping NFL future wagers cannot be understated. Each year we see teams expected to perform well fall flat (ie 2005's Eagles or Chargers) while other teams exceed expectations (ie 2005's Bengals or Steelers).

Given the unprecedented parity that exists in this league thanks to a collective bargaining agreement that distributes revenue equally through the league, NFL future wagers provide value that can scarcely be found through any other sports wager.

Below I have listed and briefly detailed five (5) future wagers that I feel offer excellent value for the upcoming 2006-07 NFL Season.

All lines were listed at PinnacleSports.com on 8/22/06 at 5:00 PM PT.

Arizona Cardinals

Over 8 wins +114

1/2 Unit

Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald each caught more than 100 passes for 1,400-plus yards last season, just the second time in the NFL's 86-year history that two teammates had that combination. Add perennial stud Edgerrin James (1,500+ yards 4 times in 7 seasons) into the mix and you have a potent offense by any standards. Naysayers will point to a mediocre offensive line and injury prone Kurt Warner at quarteback, but the addition of James and Coach Green's second year in Phoenix has me thinking that this could be a huge year in the Arizona desert.

Chicago Bears

Under 9 wins +188

1/2 Unit

The Bears drastically overachieved in route to an NFC North championship and an 11-5 record last season. The division was a total disaster after both the Vikings and Packers struggled and the Lions once again failed to muster anything nearing respectability. Chicago will have controversies at both quarterback (Grossman v. Griese) and runningback (Jones v. Benson) and is due for a huge letdown in a division that's bound to be more competitive in 2006. You really believe the Bears will win 10 games again in 2006? Well, that's what it will take to beat you with this wager.

Odds to Win the NFC North

Green Bay Packers +943

1/2 Unit

This one is strictly a Brett Favre value play. If you read my rant about the Bears above then you've likely gathered that I don't think too much of the NFC North "favorites." Better than nine to one on the old gunslinger to find a way to win his division one last time before he rides off into the sunset? Okay, I like what I hear.


Odds to Win the NFC South

Atlanta Falcons +352

1/2 Unit

The hype surrounding Michael Vick seems a little muted this preseason. Generally, we're accustomed to hearing speculation about whether this will be the year he puts it all together or whether this will be the year he finally becomes a better pocket passer. The Falcons are currently in talks to deal T.J. Duckett and will likely get a number three receiver in return. Just when John Q. Public gives up and the media turns their attention elsewhere, I think Vick and Co. are due for a better than expected season. Clearly, Carolina will offer stern resistance for the top spot, but in my opinion the NFC South is a two-horse race.

Odds to Win the AFC Championship

Miami Dolphins +1204

1/2 Unit

Miami has quickly become a "trendy" pick to make some serious noise in 2006. The beauty of it all, however, is that the AFC is loaded with talented teams so we can still get some solid value on this bona fide "wiseguy" play. Nick Saban is a proven winner and I love the upgrade a quarterback. Daunte Culpepper is a fierce competitor and will post huge numbers in a bounce back year if his knee will allow it. Admittedly, I'd like to see another playmaker at the wide receiver position, but Ronnie Brown is poised for a breakout season and the defense still rates among the tops in the league. The Dolphins ended 2005 on a 6-game winning streak.

Ed Note:  If you think you can pick who is going to win the Super Bowl this year, make sure you get your wager down at BodogSportsbook before the lines change.