Small Ball

By Ted Kane
8-18-06

Home runs are exciting. Inside the park, out of the park, grand slam, walk-off, even a simple solo shot that just stays fair down the line--however it happens, it's all good. But not every ballgame is won by a towering blast, and not all teams are built around power. A lot of managers subscribe to the philosophy of small ball, getting men on
base and moving them over until the runners are plated. While this is not always dramatic, it is usually an effective way of winning games.

Likewise, there is nothing better than cashing a winning ticket on a huge underdog. Who doesn't want to have, for example, that sweet $100 future wager on the Cubs at 100-1 the year they finally break the curse? It could happen, but it's not the only or best way to win betting at baseball. A friend of mine does very well grinding out a modest profit over the course of the year by doing the simplest thing possible--betting on the best team to win, day in day out. Lightning does sometimes strike, but there's no reason why you can't make money while it's sunny out, too.

Here's how the angle works. Let’s say the Yankees are going to be playing a three game series against Kansas City and Seattle for four games this week. New York is the vastly superior team in both cases. Sure, anything can happen on any given night--that's why they play the games, as the cliché goes--but over the course of a three or four game series and a 162 game regular season, the odds are overwhelmingly in favor of the Yanks. Though you are not going to get much of a price on each individual game, you are probably going to win five, no less than four of these games, maybe as many as six or even all seven. The key is to remain patient and not let the inevitable loss here and there distract you from the target. If you stick to this plan, it should be at least modestly profitable.

This is an especially good strategy for this time of year. By now, the contenders have begun to separate themselves from the pretenders, and only a handful of teams are playing for anything more than a paycheck. For the perpetually rebuilding franchises out there, particularly after rosters expand on September 1, the focus will be on developing young players rather than winning at all costs. On the flipside, you can make some money betting the dogs next month if you know which clubs have strong farm systems. If, for example, you know of a pitcher currently in class AAA with a particularly lively arm, you might be able to parlay that into some cash on his first couple of trips to the mound for the parent club.

Ed Note:  For the best baseball vig in town, check out CanBet.