Don't Bet on the Conventional Wisdom

By Ted Kane
8-26-06

Horse racing is one of the oldest sports known to man. Over the millennia, a lot of adages and dictates have grown around the pastime. While punters owe it to read books and articles dealing with wagering strategies and the history of the game, it is essential to do so critically. A volume written by a successful handicapper can be an invaluable resource, but what works for one person may not always work for another. There are some pieces of conventional wisdom that seem to appear in almost every tome and missive on playing the ponies. They are all worth considering, but here's another maxim to keep in mind: rules are made to be broken.

Here's an example of an oft-repeated old railbird's tail: Don't bet on maiden races. Well, it is true that there are certain challenges presented by a field made up of horses that have never won a race. None, obviously, can be said to have the 'winning habit' that racing analysts like to describe. That said, a look at the past performances will reveal some important information about the horse's ability. If the horse has raced, how did he or she do? Was the time fast or slow? How far back of the winning horse did the animal finish? What kind of races did the horse run in? Say the a horse in today's $20,000 maiden claiming event finished in fourth by 3 1/4 in her last out, a $56k special weight event, and that the show horse went on to win a race three days ago. That horse is obviously exiting a competitive race, and it may have an advantage over a rival that finished a distant second in a claiming race at this level. And even if some of the horses haven't run, published workout time will give you an idea of a horse's speed which you can compare across the field. The point is, maiden races aren't some kind of impenetrable mystery, any more than any other type of race. Sure, some are wide open affairs that can only be guessed at; that happens with allowance races and graded stakes from time to time as well. If you don't know, don't have a strong hunch, sit it out. But there's a lot of money to be made betting maidens, and it seems a shame to miss out on it because of something some know-it-all wrote in a book.

Paradoxically, another old saw holds that you don't make money betting on the favorites. And it does seem like a good rule of thumb not to bet singly on horses paying even money or less; the payoff just isn't worth the risk in those cases. But, in general, my experience is that you make money betting on the horses that wins the race and you lose
money when the horse you bet on to win is not posted first. Sure, it's better when the winning horse pays at 30-1 rather than 9-5, but it's better to cash your $2 ticket for $5.80 than it is to just throw it away. Really, that isn't such a bad profit when your horse comes up the winner. The bottom line is that you make money betting on the winner, and statistics tell us that 33% of the time it is the favorite. If you handicapping tells you the favorite is going to win the race, respect that. (now, on the other hand, if you find a horse that you think can win a race and its odds seem out of line...say you think its real odds should be 5-1 and it's going at 15-1 or something...you need to respect that, too. But this is a topic for another day)

This segues nicely into the last common piece of advice that I want to examine right now, which is the old adage 'don't mess with the gimmicks.' Actually, as I mentioned in my last article, when you have a short-priced, can't miss favorite, that's the time to play the exotics. Just today, I quadrupled my money betting a pick-three at Saratoga and the early daily double at Del Mar, both keyed on can't miss favorites (the first leg at the Spa and both ends at Del Mar). Fortunately, with prominent public handicappers such as Stephen Crist and Andrew Beyer championing multi-race wagering, this particular piece of racing lore does at last seem to be headed out to pasture.

Ed Note:  Go against the grain and place all your horse racing bets at BodogSportsbook.